Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis: Do Youth-Reported Psychosis Symptoms Predict Later Mental Health Diagnosis?

Youth reporting psychosis spectrum symptoms are at a significantly increased risk of later mental health diagnoses, particularly psychotic disorders, but the clinical implications require careful consideration.

Summary and findings

This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the longitudinal association between psychosis spectrum symptoms (PSS) in children and youth and subsequent mental health diagnoses. The analysis included 25 studies and found that baseline PSS were associated with a 2.07-fold increased risk of subsequent mental health disorders and a 3.11-fold increased risk of subsequent psychotic disorders. The follow-up period was a minimum of 1 year from baseline assessment.

Abstract

<h4>Objective</h4> Psychosis spectrum symptoms (PSS) are common among children and youth. These symptoms may be clinically significant as studies indicate a heightened risk of mental health disorders, in general, as well as psychotic disorders, specifically, in youth that endorse PSS. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the longitudinal association between PSS in children and youth and subsequent mental health diagnosis. <h4>Methods</h4> A comprehensive search of Ovid Medline, PsycINFO, and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify longitudinal studies that: (i) assess PSS at a baseline timepoint, (ii) in individuals under 25 years, and (iii) assess mental health disorder diagnosis using a structured assessment at a later time point in the same sample. We conducted a meta-analysis and calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs) for mental health and psychotic disorders using random-effects models. Post-hoc meta-regressions were performed to examine the influence of a number of moderators on the relationship between earlier recorded PSS and subsequent mental health disorders or psychotic disorders. <h4>Results</h4> The search yielded 41 eligible studies of which 25 were included in the meta-analysis. Most included studies assessed PSS using brief self-report measures and recruited their samples from clinical or community settings. Among children and youth without an identified mental health diagnosis at baseline assessment, baseline PSS were associated with a 2-fold (OR = 2.07, CI = 1.61 - 2.66, I 2 = 86.92%, p < 0.0001) increased risk of meeting diagnostic criteria for subsequent mental health disorder diagnosis and a 3-fold increased risk (OR = 3.11, CI = 2.11 - 4.58, (I 2 = 60.93%, p < 0.0090) of meeting diagnostic criteria for a subsequent psychotic disorder diagnosis with a minimum 1 year follow-up time from baseline assessment. Meta-regression analysis indicated that study quality and sample size explained a substantial proportion of between-study heterogeneity for psychotic disorder outcomes. <h4>Conclusions</h4> Our results suggest that administration of simple self-report measures of PSS in both clinical and community settings may be helpful to identify children and youth at higher risk of subsequently meeting criteria for a mental disorder generally, and for a severe mental illness (i.e., psychotic disorder), specifically. Future longitudinal studies should focus on improving study design characteristics to increase confidence in identified longitudinal associations. The results of our work suggests that integration of self-report measures of PSS may be useful in a variety of settings to identify youth at increased risk of subsequent mental illness.

Key findings

• Not reported in abstract.

Limitations

• Not reported in abstract.

Elsewhere in the PNC-27 corpus